An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal tomorrow, on the steadily slowing American distance runner.
But it's not just that slower, less well-trained runners are competing in races. In absolute terms fewer U.S. runners are running fast. Except for Ryan Hall (on a faster course in London), no American-born runner has ever run faster than Alberto Salazar's 2:08:13 marathon in New York in 1981. Meanwhile, three times as many male runners achieved the same qualifying time in the U.S. Olympic marathon trials in 1984 as in 2008. The story is the same at nearly every event up the distance ladder. With the exception of a few standouts (for example, Alan Webb), U.S. runners cannot match the times of their earlier progenitors.
Times have also slowed among the "sub-elite" or so-called club runner, the ranks from which champions emerge. Consider that in 1978 more than 2,000 runners broke three hours at the Boston marathon. In 2002, with a field nearly three times as large, only about 1,000 runners broke the three-hour barrier. At the seven-mile Falmouth Road Race, in 1979, a finishing time of 36 minutes was good enough only for 84th place. But in 2009, the same time would have earned 34th place.
So, yes, the Kenyans that win Boston every year are fast, but they're not dramatically faster than the winning times in marathons past. But the American runners are struggling to compete at that relatively consistent elite level. For example, Robert K. Cheruyiot won in 2003 in 2:10:11; in 1982 Alberto Salazar won in 2:08:52.
No, I don't have an answer.
