What does it all mean? I'll throw out the links, and let you sort 'em out.
First up we have the so-far-left-he's-about-to-topple-into-a-vat-of-socialism Bob Kuttner in yesterdays Boston Globe essentially saying that either the Democrats enjoy a glorious romp on Tuesday, or Republican fraud/cheating/voter suppression/Diebold!! steals it from them. Never mind all those illegal ACORN registrations there, big boy. A rebuttal comes from Michael Graham, who notes and then tears apart the dishonesty of Mr. Kuttner's analysis.
Dean Barnett, on a long sabbatical from Soxblog, thinks that the polls are wrong, in that Democrats in general are much more likely to talk to pollsters, and particularly so when they are excited about their chances. His view seems too optimistic, but at least he's not accusing the other side of cheating in advance.
To take a more serious look at the matter, what the polls measure right now are people passionate or bored enough to spend a half hour talking to a stranger or, worse still, punching buttons on their telephone when prompted to by a recording. Democrats are more likely to tolerate this exercise, just as they were more likely to tolerate the inquisition of an eager grad student as they left the polls on Election Day ’04.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post, apparently sensing the tide lifting Michael Steele to victory in Maryland, comes up with a wholly unsupportable editorial in support of his opponent, Rep. Ben Cardin. Power Line has the details. Their most pertinent question? How can the WP endorse Mr. Steele's governor and then condemn Steele for working with him?
Why would the Post sense such a tide? Well, a new ABC/Washington Post poll has it much tighter on the generic ballot question Democrat vs. Republican than it has been in some time, 6% for the Democrats. Jim Geraghty has more, including a similar poll response before the tidal wave in 1994, another big Democratic year. Maybe Mr. Barnett was on to something. Others on this: AJ Strata, Decision '08, Ace of Spades.
Again I ask, what does it all mean? Who knows? I do know that Kuttner is wrong about his "Dems win or Reps cheated" construct. Other than that, get out and vote, vote only once, and don't go to the polls if you're dead.
11/5/06 1930: Oh oh, oh oh. As Randall said to Mike Wazowski, "You hear that? It's the winds of change." Should we call it the John Kerry Effect?
11/6/06 0645: Gallup Poll - same tightening, which USA Today tries very hard to pretend isn't worrisome for the overconfident Dems. That's three polls out just before the election, and very consistent. It looks as if I'm not the only one who thinks it's the Kerry Effect. Remember, he was before the war before he was against it.
11/6/06 1530: We're officially in "who knows?" territory now. CNN and Fox News polls both show Democrats with much larger generic question advantages than the other three, Gallup, Pew and ABC/WaPo.
