The cease-fire is less than a day old, and with both sides declaring victory it's time for the dust to settle.
Hezbollah fighters hugged each other and celebratory gunfire and fireworks erupted in Beirut as the Islamic militant group's leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah claimed a "strategic, historic victory."
But Israeli Prime Ehud Olmert also claimed success, saying the offensive eliminated the "state within a state" run by Hezbollah group and restored Lebanon's sovereignty in the south.
Truth is, neither side won, and neither lost. Both accomplished some of their objectives. Hezbollah survived by using the Lebanese civilians as human shields, and still has a lot of arms. Israel took out a lot of Hezbollah armaments and claimed a buffer zone, and got the UN to once again call for the disarmament of the terrorists. It's impossible to declare a winner when the game is stopped because the referee sprained an ankle.
Now all that's left is to wait for yet another dramatic UN effort to fail. That's right, fail. How could it possibly succeed? There are far too many things that have to go perfectly for it to succeed. The Israelis and Hezbollah, first, have to avoid conflicts despite the continued necessary presence of the Israelis in southern Lebanon. Then the Lebanese Army and the "robust" international force with orders to disarm Hezbollah will have to show up and do their job, disarming Hezbollah. The Israelis, as those troops arrive and begin their work, will have to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah will actually have to allow themselves to be disarmed, or to be forcibly disarmed, both unlikely. Syria and Iran will have to refrain from re-arming Hezbollah if they are, indeed, disarmed. Oh, and Hezbollah will have to refrain from firing Katyusha rockets at either Israeli civilians in Haifa and other northern Israeli cities, or at Israeli military personnel in southern Lebanon. And if any of those problems do develop both sides will need to show restraint, and the "international community" will have to restate and redouble their resolve to disarm Hezbollah.
Oops. Too late.
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Tens of thousands of Lebanese jammed bomb-cratered roads Monday as they returned to still-smoldering scenes of destruction after a tenuous cease-fire ended 34 days of vicious combat between Israel and Hezbollah.
Highlighting the fragility of the peace, Hezbollah guerrillas fired at least 10 Katyusha rockets that landed in southern Lebanon early Tuesday, the Israeli army said, adding that nobody was injured. The army said that none of the rockets, which were fired over a two-hour period, had crossed the border and so it had not responded.
Let's hope that restraint prevails. Is it possible that the UN itself will fail Sen. Kerry's "Global Test?"
8/15/06 0630: Karol Sheinin, blogging at Michelle Malkin's, notes that the people of Israel are not behind the cease-fire. They wanted to finish the job. Pertinent comment:
It's interesting to apply this lesson to the Iraq war: if we leave too early, without finishing the job, and the country is once again turned over to thugs and terrorists, how can we tell the families of dead American soldiers that they fought with good reason, that their sacrifice was not in vain, that the cause was noble, but we just couldn't stomach seeing it through to completion?
Meanwhile, again from Karol, Hezbollah won't disarm. I'm shocked, shocked I tell you!
8/15/06 0645: I thought my take was pessimistic. Wow.
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